NE Drought Streamflow Probabilities (USGS)Maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR) is used to estimate drought probabilities for selected Northeast region rivers and streams.
Winter streamflows are used to estimate the chance of hydrologic drought during summer months. Hydrologic drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September are provided as functions of streamflows during the previous October, November, December, January, and February. Probable streamflows are identified 5 to 11 months ahead of their occurrence.